A decade following the UK entered into a hurried public vote that split the country and triggered chaos, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have examined the political, financial and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim such a time is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unity has obscured the shortage of serious debate, said the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in universities but hardly any politicians or campaigners want to engage with even the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Each writes two pieces that aim for objectivity in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and social figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates encompass national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," commented O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they favour unification but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his era is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless official who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid perspectives, he said. "Somebody will succeed here and the other side will ultimately be defeated but all factions has possesses something to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the debate, urged O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
